Tuesday, November 29, 2011

BCS Notes: The new BCS Standings are out here. You can see them Here

Notables from the latest BCS Standings:
1. Stanford jumps Virginia Tech to move into the No. 4 spot. Like last year, this guarantees the Cardinal a BCS at-large no matter what. There is a chance that Virginia Tech could jump back ahead of Stanford if they beat Clemson next week, but Stanford is still likely to receive an at-large bid from the No. 5 spot. If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Stanford is guaranteed to be in the Top 4.
2. I currently have Michigan in the Sugar Bowl, but the Wolverines are No. 16 in the latest BCS Standings. To be in a BCS game, Michigan must crack the Top 14, and here's the problem, their season is done. For Michigan to get into the Top 14, they need two of these teams to lose: Wisconsin, Houston, Georgia, Oklahoma.

3. TCU checks into the BCS Standings at No. 18. IF the Horned Frogs can get into the Top 16, as champions of the Mountain West Conference (Tiebreaker over Boise State), TCU will receive an automatic bid to a BCS Bowl because they will be ranked ahead of whoever ends up being the Big East Conference champion.

4. The gap between Alabama and Oklahoma State for No. 2 and No. 3 is .0839, which is significant. Oklahoma State had been in the Top 2 of the BCS computers all season until now dropping to No. 3 because of the bye week while Alabama beat Auburn. With a win over Oklahoma next week, Oklahoma State should move back to No. 2 in the computers, but the Harris Poll and Coaches' Poll voters have Oklahoma State at No. 5, which is no where near good enough to be able to jump Alabama in the BCS.

5. IF Georgia beats LSU AND LSU-Alabama remains the BCS Championship Game matchup, then the SEC will get a third team in a BCS game and it won't be Arkansas. Georgia will head to the Sugar Bowl, stealing an at-large spot from either Michigan or Stanford (if Stanford not in the Top 4).

Here's my Updated Bowl Projections.

-Utah State has accepted an invitation to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
-Louisiana Tech has accepted an invitation to the Poinsettia Bowl
-BYU has accepted an invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl
-Arkansas State has accepted an invitation to the GoDaddy.com Bowl.
-Bowl matchups will be announced Sunday, December 4.

-Penn State seems almost certain to be headed for the Insight Bowl. The only thing that could change that in my opinion is if Michigan does not make a BCS Bowl, which would bump Penn State down to the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.
-If Michigan makes a BCS Bowl and Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, Nebraska beat writer tells me Nebraska is almost guaranteed Capital One Bowl, if not, then Outback Bowl.
-West coast writers believe that Boise State will go to the Maaco Bowl ahead of TCU, although TCU is the conference champion with the tiebreaker, but being officially "co-champions" the Maaco Bowl can take Boise State. The only thing that TCU can use the tiebreaker for is if there is an automatic-BCS bid on the line.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming vs. Western Michigan
Previous Projection: San Diego State vs. Temple
-Could take San Diego State instead of Wyoming. The Independence Bowl has first choice and San Diego State is the better team, but would the crowd travel to Shreveport? Whichever Independence Bowl doesn't take comes here.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State
Previous Projection: Same

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Previous Projection: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. UTEP

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Temple
Previous Projection: South Florida vs. Purdue
-Maybe this could be Pitt-Illinois if it works out that way?

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. TCU
Previous Projection: Same
*Louisiana Tech has already accepted.

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State
Previous Projection: Boise State vs. UCLA

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Marshall
Previous Projection: Same 

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: San Diego State vs. North Carolina State
Previous Projection: Wyoming vs. NC State
-They could go with Wyoming instead of San Diego State.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Toledo vs. Northwestern
Previous Projection: Same 

Belk Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia
Previous Projection: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
-Cincinnati owns the head-to-head and has a better record than Louisville but either team could represent the Big East here.

Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman: Air Force vs. Wake Forest
Previous Projection: Air Force vs. North Carolina

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: California vs. Baylor
Previous Projection: Arizona State vs. Missouri

Champs Sports Bowl: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Previous Projection: Florida State vs. Notre Dame

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Washington
Previous Projection: Kansas State vs. Washington

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs. Tulsa
Previous Projection: Same
*BYU has already accepted

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Rutgers
Previous Projection: Same

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Mississippi State
Previous Projection: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State

Insight Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas
Previous Projection: Baylor vs. Nebraska
-To me, it makes more sense for Penn State to go to Florida and Nebraska to go the Insight Bowl but I spoke to a Nebraska beat writer that says Nebraska to the Capital One Bowl is a done deal, which would give Michigan State the Outback Bowl, assuming Wisconsin goes to the Rose Bowl.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Missouri vs. Iowa
Previous Projection: Texas vs. Illinois

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Previous Projection: Virginia vs. Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: UCLA vs. Iowa State
Previous Projection: California vs. Iowa State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Vanderbilt
Previous Projection: Southern Miss vs. Tennessee

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State vs. Auburn
Previous Projection: Clemson vs. Auburn

TicketCity Bowl: Purdue vs. SMU
Previous Projection: Iowa vs. SMU

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. Arkansas
Previous Projection: Michigan State vs. Georgia
-Nebraska owns the head-to-head over Michigan State and I spoke to a Nebraska beat writer for the Omaha Herald who says Nebraska officials told him they have been in contact with Capital One Bowl.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida
Previous Projection: Same

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. South Carolina
Previous Projection: Penn State vs. South Carolina
-If Michigan State is passed over by the Capital One Bowl, it's almost certain they'd get a bid to the Outback Bowl ahead of Penn State.

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Georgia
Previous Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas

BBVA Compass Bowl: Florida International vs. Louisville
Previous Projection: Vanderbilt vs. CIncinnati
-You could see Western Kentucky here instead of FIU but despite the Hilltoppers having a great season with just one conference loss, FIU's 8-4 record and bowl reputation could put the Panthers ahead.

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Previous Projection: Same
*Arkansas State has already accepted

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
Previous Projection: Oklahoma vs. Stanford

Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Previous Projection: Same

AllState Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. Houston
Previous Projection: Same

Discover Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Previous Projection: Same

BCS Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama
Previous Projection: Same.
-let talk the talk of a rematch continue...

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