Sunday, December 4, 2011

Last Bowl Projections for 2011

Western Kentucky will be the team that gets snubbed. Western Michigan makes a bowl game.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming vs. Temple

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. San Diego State

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International vs. Marshall

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: TCU vs. Louisiana Tech

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Southern Miss

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Missouri vs. North Carolina

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Purdue vs. Western Michigan

Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. North Carolina State

Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman: Air Force vs. Toledo

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: California vs. Texas

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State vs. Notre Dame

Valero Alamo Bowl: Baylor vs. Washington

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs. Tulsa

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State vs. Rutgers

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State

Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Oklahoma

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M vs. Northwestern

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: UCLA vs. Illinois

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia vs. Auburn

TIcketCity Bowl: Penn State vs. Houston

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. South Carolina

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Georgia

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Arkansas

BBVA Compass Bowl: SMU vs. Pittsburgh

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

AllState Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Discover Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama
The big debates...
1. Who will play LSU for the national championship, Alabama or Oklahoma State?
2. Will TCU make a BCS Bowl and if not, then who?
3. Who will take the 70th bowl spot, Western Michigan or Western Kentucky?

I think I have the answers to question 1 and 2 figured out, but I have no idea about No. 3, so I give you both scenarios.

I wouldn't rule Penn State-Texas in the Insight Bowl completely out yet, but it's looking more and more like that Penn State will be passed. Yesterday Texas played its way out of the Insight Bowl, but if Kansas State gets a BCS at-large, that puts Texas right back in the Insight Bowl.

Also, don't rule out Boise State getting an at-large over Kansas State.

Here's my last bowl projections, I kind of mixed and matched different possibilities, too.



BOWL PROJECTIONS IF WESTERN MICHIGAN IS 70TH TEAM
Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Air Force vs. Western Michigan

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Illinois

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International vs. Marshall

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: TCU vs. Louisiana Tech

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. SMU

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: San Diego State vs. North Carolina

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Toledo vs. Northwestern

Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. Virginia

Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman: Wake Forest vs. Temple

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: California vs. Missouri

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State vs. Notre Dame

Valero Alamo Bowl: Baylor vs. Washington

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: BYU vs. Houston

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State vs. Rutgers

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Mississippi State

Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Texas

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M vs. Penn State

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: UCLA vs. Wyoming

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn

TicketCity Bowl: Purdue vs. Tulsa

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. South Carolina

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Georgia

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

BBVA Compass Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Pittsburgh

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

AllState Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. Kansas State

Discover Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama




IF WESTERN KENTUCKY IS THE 70TH TEAM
Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Air Force vs. Temple

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. SMU

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International vs. Marshall

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: TCU vs. Louisiana Tech
 Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Southern Miss

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: San Diego State vs. North Carolina

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Toledo vs. Northwestern

Belk Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia

Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman: Wake Forest vs. Illinois

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: California vs. Missouri

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State vs. Notre Dame

Valero Alamo Bowl: Baylor vs. Washington

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: BYU vs. Tulsa

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State vs. Rutgers

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Mississippi State

Insight Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M vs. Iowa

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: UCLA vs. Wyoming

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Vanderbilt

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn

TicketCity Bowl: Purdue vs. Houston

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. South Carolina
 TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Georgia

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

BBVA Compass Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Louisville

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford  

AllState Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. Kansas State

Discover Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama
Assuming Michigan and TCU make BCS Bowls, here are my latest bowl projections with bowl scenarios that cover a LSU-Alabama title game and a LSU-Oklahoma State title game.
*Michigan most likely makes a BCS Bowl game if it is ranked inside the Top 14 of the final BCS Standings
*TCU makes a BCS Bowl game if it is ranked inside the Top 16 and ahead of West Virignia in the final BCS Standings.
I think Michigan is safe. TCU is the one that makes me nervous. If the Horned Frogs don't make a BCS game, I'm going to have redo these projections and either Kansas State or Boise State will get a BCS at-large. Wow.

Previous Bowl Projections
My Top 25

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Air Force vs. Western Michigan
*TCU making a BCS Bowl opens up Air Force to be in this game instead of the Military Bowl.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Illinois

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International vs. Marshall

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Wyoming vs. Louisiana Tech
*could be San Diego State here instead of Wyoming but San Diego State played in this game last year and Wyoming beat San Diego State this season.

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. SMU

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: San Diego State vs. North Carolina

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Toledo vs. Purdue

Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. Virginia

Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman: Wake Forest vs. Temple

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: California vs. Texas

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State vs. Notre Dame

Valero Alamo Bowl: Baylor vs. Washington
*Remember when Baylor beat Oklahoma? The Bears could end up in the Alamo Bowl ahead of Oklahoma.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: BYU vs. Tulsa

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Missouri vs. Rutgers
*Missouri is in a good position to get snubbed and end up in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Mississippi State

Insight Bowl: Penn State vs. Oklahoma
*Huge historical matchup if it happens. Oklahoma may have played its way into the Insight Bowl.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M vs. Northwestern
*I'm hearing this Bowl wants Texas A&M over Missouri and wants Northwestern over Iowa, so there's that.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: UCLA vs. Iowa State
*UCLA has a bowl waiver to participate in a bowl game despite having a 6-7 record.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
*Cincinnati likely gets this game rather than Houston. Houston's loss free-falls them to TicketCity.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn

TicketCity Bowl: Iowa vs. Houston

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. South Carolina
*Nebraska-Arkansas was my previous projection but I'm hearing a lot of people say that Capital One wants South Carolina instead of Arkansas, although I think Nebraska-Arkansas is the better game.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Georgia

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Arkansas

BBVA Compass Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Pittsburgh

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford OR Stanford vs. West Virginia OR Stanford vs. Boise State/Kansas State (if TCU doesn't make BCS)

AllState Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia OR Michigan vs. Alabama

Discover Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. TCU OR Clemson vs. West Virginia (if TCU doesn't make BCS)

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama OR LSU vs. Oklahoma State

Friday, December 2, 2011

Mapping out scenarios based on championship game results

Mapping out some more bowl scenarios

by Patrick Woo on Friday, December 2, 2011 at 4:16pm
Big Ten Conference
If Michigan makes the BCS and Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship
Rose: Wisconsin
Sugar: Michigan
Capital One: Nebraska
Outback: Michigan State
Insight: Penn State
Gator: Ohio State
Car Care: Iowa
TicketCity: Purdue
Little Caesars: Northwestern
At-Large: Illinois

If Michigan makes the BCS and Michigan State wins the Big Ten Championship
Rose: Michigan State
Sugar: Michigan
Capital One: Wisconsin
Outback: Nebraska
Insight: Penn State
Gator: Ohio State

If Michigan does NOT make the BCS and Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship
Rose: Wisconsin
Capital One: Michigan
Outback: Michigan State
Insight: Nebraska
Gator: Ohio State
Car Care: Penn State

If Michigan does NOT make the BCS and Michigan State wins the Big Ten Championship
Rose: Michigan State
Capital One: Wisconsin
Outback: Michigan
Insight: Nebraska
Gator: Ohio State
Car Care: Penn State

Atlantic Coast Conference
If Clemson wins ACC Championship
Orange: Clemson
Chick-Fil-A: Virginia Tech
Champs Sports: Florida State

If Virginia Tech wins ACC Championship
Orange: Virginia Tech
Chick-Fil-A: Florida State
Champs Sports: Clemson

Big 12 Conference
If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and Baylor beats Texas
Fiesta: Oklahoma State
Cotton: Kansas State
Alamo: Oklahoma
Insight: Baylor
Holiday: Missouri
Car Care: Texas
Pinstripe: Texas A&M
At-Large: Iowa State

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and Texas beats Baylor
Fiesta: Oklahoma State
Cotton: Kansas State
Alamo: Oklahoma
Insight: Texas
Holiday: Baylor
Car Care: Missouri
Pinstripe: Texas A&M

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor beats Texas and Michigan does not make BCS
Fiesta: Oklahoma
Sugar: Oklahoma State
Cotton: Kansas State
Alamo: Baylor
Insight: Texas
Holiday: Missouri
Car Care: Texas A&M
Pinstripe: Iowa State

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor beats Texas and Michigan makes BCS over Oklahoma State
Fiesta: Oklahoma
Cotton: Oklahoma State
Alamo: Kansas State
Insight: Baylor
Holiday: Missouri
Car Care: Texas
Pinstripe: Texas A&M

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Texas beats Baylor
Fiesta: Oklahoma
Cotton: Oklahoma State
Alamo: Kansas State
Insight: Texas
Holiday: Baylor
Car Care: Missouri
Pinstripe: Texas A&M

Big East Conference - the toughest to project
If West Virginia wins Big East
Orange: West Virginia
Liberty: Cincinnati
Belk:Louisville
Pinstripe:Rutgers
Compass: Pittsburgh

If Louisville wins Big East
Orange: Louisville
Belk: West Virginia
Liberty: Cincinnati
Pinstripe: Rutgers
Compass: Pittsburgh

Pac-12 Conference
If Oregon wins Pac-12 Championship
Rose: Oregon
Fiesta: Stanford
Alamo: Washington
Holiday: California
Sun: Utah
Maaco: Arizona State
Fight Hunger: UCLA
New Mexico: no Pac-12 team

If UCLA wins Pac-12 Championship
Rose: UCLA
Fiesta: Stanford
Alamo: Oregon
Holiday: Washington
Sun: California
Maaco: Utah
Fight Hunger: Arizona State
New Mexico: UCLA

Southeastern Conference
If LSU wins SEC Championship
National Championship: LSU
National Championship: Alabama
Capital One: Arkansas/Georgia
Cotton: Georgia/Arkansas
Outback: South Carolina
Chick-Fil-A: Auburn
Gator: Florida
Music City: Mississippi State
Liberty: Vanderbilt
Compass: no SEC team

If Georgia wins SEC Championship
National Championship: Alabama
National Championship: LSU
Sugar: Georgia
Capital One: Arkansas
Cotton: South Carolina
Outback: Auburn
Chick-fil-A: Florida
Gator: Vanderbilt
Music City: Mississippi State
Liberty: no SEC team
Compass: no SEC team

If somehow there's no rematch in national championship game
National Championship: LSU
Sugar: Alabama
Capital One: Arkansas/Georgia
Cotton: Georgia/Arkansas
Outback: South Carolina
Chick-Fil-A: Auburn
Gator: Florida
Music City: Mississippi State
Liberty: Vanderbilt
Compass: no SEC team